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*What China’s Economic Woes May Mean for the U.S.*
The fallout is probably limited — and there may be some upside for American interests.
The news about China’s economy over the past few weeks has been daunting, to put it mildly.
The country’s growth has fallen from its usual brisk 8 percent annual pace to more like 3 percent. Real estate companies are imploding after a decade of overbuilding. And China’s citizens, frustrated by lengthy coronavirus lockdowns and losing confidence in the government, haven’t been able to consume their way out of the country’s pandemic-era malaise.
If the world’s second-largest economy is stumbling so badly, what does that mean for the biggest?
Short answer: At the moment, the implications for the United States are probably minor, given China’s limited role as a customer for American goods and the minor connections between the countries’ financial systems.
In a note published Thursday, Wells Fargo simulated a “hard landing” scenario for China in which output over the next three years would be 12.5 percent smaller than previous growth rates would achieve — similar to the impact of a slump from 1989 to 1991. Even under those conditions, the U.S. economy would shave only 0.1 percent off its inflation-adjusted growth in 2024, and 0.2 percent in 2025.
That could change, however, if China’s current shakiness deepens into a collapse that drags down an already slowing global economy.
“It doesn’t necessarily help things, but I don’t think it’s a major factor in determining the outlook in the next six months,” Neil Shearing, the chief economist at Capital Economics Group, an analysis and consulting firm, said in a recent webinar. “Unless the outlook for China becomes substantially worse.”
A potential balm for inflation, but a threat to factories.
When considering the economic relationship between the two countries, it’s important to recognize that the United States has played some role in China’s troubles.
The United States is well past a boom in consumption during the pandemic that pulled in $536.8 billion worth of imports from China in 2022. This year, with home offices and patios stuffed full of furniture and electronics, Americans are spending their money on cruises and Taylor Swift tickets instead. That lowers demand for goods from Chinese factories — which had already been weakened by a swath of tariffs that former President Donald J. Trump started and the Biden administration has largely kept in place.
*Raimondo Heads to China to Both Promote Trade, and Restrict It*
The commerce secretary’s trip may be the clearest demonstration yet of the balancing act the Biden administration is trying to pull off in its relations with China.
Gina Raimondo, the secretary of commerce, is heading to China on Saturday with two seemingly contradictory responsibilities: a mandate to strengthen U.S. business relations with Beijing while also imposing some of the toughest Chinese trade restrictions in years.
The head of the Commerce Department is traditionally the government’s biggest champion for the business community both at home and abroad, promoting the kind of extensive ties U.S. firms have with China, the world’s second-largest economy.
But U.S.-China relations have turned chillier as China has become more aggressive in flexing its economic and military might. While China remains an important economic partner, American officials have increasingly viewed the country as a security threat and have imposed a raft of new restrictions aimed at crippling Beijing’s access to technology that could be used to strengthen the Chinese military or security services.
The bulk of those restrictions — which have stoked anger and irritation from the Chinese government — have been imposed by Ms. Raimondo’s agency.
The Commerce Department has issued extensive trade restrictions on sales of chips, software and machinery to China’s semiconductor industry and is mulling an expansion of those rules that could be issued soon after Ms. Raimondo returns to Washington.
Her visit could be the biggest test yet of whether the Biden administration can pull off the balancing act of promoting economic ties with China while clamping down on some trade in the interest of national security.
*Ukraine Is Still Grappling With the Battlefield Prigozhin Left Behind*
He shored up Russian forces at their most vulnerable and drew Ukraine into a costly fight for Bakhmut, giving Moscow time to build defenses that are slowing Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
As the Russian military reeled on the battlefield in Ukraine last autumn, a foul-mouthed, ex-convict with a personal connection to President Vladimir V. Putin stepped out of the shadows to help.
Yevgeny V. Prigozhin for years had denied any connection to the Wagner mercenary group and operated discreetly on the margins of Russian power, trading in political skulduggery, cafeteria meals and lethal force.
Now, he was front and center, touting the Wagner brand known for its savagery and personally recruiting an army of convicts to aid a flailing Russian war operation starved for personnel.
The efforts that Mr. Prigozhin and a top Russian general seen as close to him, Gen. Sergei Surovikin, would undertake in the subsequent months would alter the course of the war.
Both men have since been taken out of action.
Mr. Prigozhin is presumed to have died in a plane crash on Wednesday, an incident that came two months after he launched a failed mutiny, and which U.S. and Western officials believe was the result of an explosion on board. Several said they thought Mr. Putin ordered the plane destroyed, suggestions the Kremlin on Friday dismissed as an “absolute lie.”
*Kremlin Considers How to Bring Private Military Group Under Its Control*
Wagner could be absorbed into Russia’s Defense Ministry or its military intelligence arm. A Russian general could also be installed to lead the group, U.S. and Western officials said.
The Kremlin is considering options on bringing the private military group Wagner under its direct control after the presumed death of its leader, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, according to U.S. and Western officials.
Among those possibilities, officials say, are absorbing Wagner into the Defense Ministry or its military intelligence arm. The Kremlin could also install a Russian general or other government ally as its new chief, according to people briefed on the preliminary intelligence.
Officials stressed that the future of Wagner, which Russia depended on as a parallel fighting force in Ukraine until it fell out of the Kremlin’s favor after a short-lived mutiny in June, was not at all clear. Still, U.S. officials said the Kremlin believes the organization’s military prowess, experienced operators and ties to African governments are too valuable to give up or allow to wither away.
A plane believed to be carrying Mr. Prigozhin crashed on Wednesday, Russian, U.S. and European officials have said. U.S. officials said the plane appeared to have been downed on the orders of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, as revenge for Mr. Prigozhin’s aborted mutiny. He had sent a column of mercenaries toward Moscow in an attempt to oust the leadership of the Defense Ministry. U.S. officials believe an explosion aboard the plane, possibly a bomb, brought down the plane.
The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the Kremlin appeared not to have made any final decisions on what to do with Wagner and, as a result, the intelligence picture was evolving.
No matter what option the Kremlin chooses, U.S. and Western officials said, there are myriad challenges for the Russian government.
If the Kremlin tries to absorb Wagner into the G.R.U. or the broader Ministry of Defense, a major question would be whether veteran Wagner mercenaries would trust, or even accept, any sort of government takeover. A mass exodus could follow.
But there are also other complications, including what to do with the company’s moneymaking endeavors in Africa, and if they would be successful as a state-controlled operation.
*FIFA Suspends Spanish Soccer Federation Chief Involved in Post-Game Kiss*
The kiss and its aftermath have stirred debate over the treatment of women in Spanish soccer.
FIFA, the soccer world’s governing body, said on Saturday that it had provisionally suspended Luis Rubiales, president of Spain’s soccer federation, amid an investigation that he forcibly kissed the player Jennifer Hermoso after Spain’s Women’s World Cup victory last Sunday.
In a statement, FIFA said that Mr. Rubiales would be suspended “from all football-related activities” at national and international levels for an initial period of 90 days, starting Saturday. The body also ordered both Mr. Rubiales and the soccer federation he chairs to refrain from contacting Ms. Hermoso, a star forward on Spain’s winning national team.
The decision came less than a day after Spain’s soccer federation said it would stand by Mr. Rubiales, who has insisted he did nothing wrong to Ms. Hermoso, and threatened legal action to protect the reputation of its president.
Mr. Rubiales’s kiss at the Women’s World Cup medals ceremony last weekend in Australia — broadcast live to millions — cast a pall over the Spanish team’s celebrations, drawing attention away from a proud national moment and toward a legacy of sexism scandals in Spanish soccer. Ms. Hermoso said she had never consented to the kiss but had faced pressure to publicly back Mr. Rubiales initially and downplay his actions.
*Putin Had Every Reason to Want Prigozhin Gone*
Very few were taken aback by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s presumed death, even if the means — plunging from the sky in a plane crash — were undeniably dramatic. Such an eventuality had been widely discussed in both Russian and Western circles ever since the mercenary leader’s short-lived mutiny in June. No matter that Mr. Prigozhin subsequently met with the Kremlin and seemed to come and go where he pleased. To many, it was only a matter of time until he got his comeuppance.
Wednesday’s events remain shrouded in mystery. Was Mr. Prigozhin’s jet shot down, or was there an explosion onboard? To what extent were the Russian authorities and, more pointedly, President Vladimir Putin himself involved in the incident? If Mr. Prigozhin was assassinated, was it a snap decision or a well thought-out plan conceived after the rebellion? The Kremlin, for its part, denies any involvement in the crash. Whatever the truth, it’s clear that Mr. Putin had ample reason to wish for Mr. Prigozhin’s demise, and not just as a matter of rehabilitating his reputation.
Mr. Putin believes fervently in a powerful state. Western audiences often downplay this fundamental conviction, emphasizing instead Mr. Putin’s personal interests and individual priorities. It’s true, of course, that there’s a large dose of self-interest in the president’s conduct. But one of Mr. Putin’s gravest nightmares is the state becoming vulnerable, unable to address domestic challenges and on the brink of disintegration. That’s precisely what Mr. Prigozhin threatened. For that transgression, he may have paid with his life.
It’s a popular notion that Wagner’s ventures were all directed by the Kremlin, but in fact Mr. Prigozhin was consistently the driving force. He proactively identified areas where Russia was faltering or ineffective and offered his services as a stopgap, always in a way that could be construed as serving the national interest. Though Mr. Prigozhin collaborated closely with the Kremlin, he pursued his own private priorities. Yet while Mr. Putin undoubtedly sanctioned and funded these endeavors, for him the primacy of the state always took precedence. Nothing could be allowed to undermine it. Mr. Prigozhin would be permitted his ventures as long as he remained subservient to the state apparatus.
Very few were taken aback by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s presumed death, even if the means — plunging from the sky in a plane crash — were undeniably dramatic. Such an eventuality had been widely discussed in both Russian and Western circles ever since the mercenary leader’s short-lived mutiny in June. No matter that Mr. Prigozhin subsequently met with the Kremlin and seemed to come and go where he pleased. To many, it was only a matter of time until he got his comeuppance.
Wednesday’s events remain shrouded in mystery. Was Mr. Prigozhin’s jet shot down, or was there an explosion onboard? To what extent were the Russian authorities and, more pointedly, President Vladimir Putin himself involved in the incident? If Mr. Prigozhin was assassinated, was it a snap decision or a well thought-out plan conceived after the rebellion? The Kremlin, for its part, denies any involvement in the crash. Whatever the truth, it’s clear that Mr. Putin had ample reason to wish for Mr. Prigozhin’s demise, and not just as a matter of rehabilitating his reputation.
Mr. Putin believes fervently in a powerful state. Western audiences often downplay this fundamental conviction, emphasizing instead Mr. Putin’s personal interests and individual priorities. It’s true, of course, that there’s a large dose of self-interest in the president’s conduct. But one of Mr. Putin’s gravest nightmares is the state becoming vulnerable, unable to address domestic challenges and on the brink of disintegration. That’s precisely what Mr. Prigozhin threatened. For that transgression, he may have paid with his life.
It’s a popular notion that Wagner’s ventures were all directed by the Kremlin, but in fact Mr. Prigozhin was consistently the driving force. He proactively identified areas where Russia was faltering or ineffective and offered his services as a stopgap, always in a way that could be construed as serving the national interest. Though Mr. Prigozhin collaborated closely with the Kremlin, he pursued his own private priorities. Yet while Mr. Putin undoubtedly sanctioned and funded these endeavors, for him the primacy of the state always took precedence. Nothing could be allowed to undermine it. Mr. Prigozhin would be permitted his ventures as long as he remained subservient to the state apparatus.
*Climate Risks Loom Over Panama Canal, a Vital Global Trade Link*
Lack of rain and changing weather patterns are slowing the ship traffic that moves goods around the world.
Shallow waters, meet Christmas shopping.
Drought, aggravated by the burning of fossil fuels, is slowing down the ship traffic that carries goods in and out of the United States through the slender and vital Panama Canal, while heat and drought in the Midwest are threatening to dry out the Mississippi River, a crucial artery for American corn and wheat exports, in the months ahead.
It could be worse. There could be multiple droughts affecting several trade routes at the same time, disturbing the transport (and subsequent prices) of many types of goods like liquefied natural gas and coffee beans. That is a looming risk in a world that has become accustomed to everything everywhere at all seasons.
Last year, for instance, as Europe faced its worst dry spell in 500 years, ships carried a fraction of the cargo they normally do along the Rhine in Germany, one of the continent’s most important thoroughfares. The Rhine’s water levels are better this year, but the river faces a longer-term climate risk: The mountain snow and ice that feeds the Rhine is declining.
Last year, drought also slowed down ships on China’s most important river route, along the Yangtze, forcing companies to move their goods to Chinese ports by road, which is costlier. The Mississippi River shut down briefly in some parts last fall, too, because river levels were so low.
Exceptionally hot, dry conditions across the middle of the country this summer means that could happen again this fall. That’s bad news for American agriculture. Grains, grown in the Midwest, make their way down the Mississippi River by barge before being shipped through the Panama Canal and then transported across the ocean.
“In September, we may have some compounding issues,” said Jon Davis, a meteorologist who works with Everstream Analytics, a private company that advises other organizations on climate hazards in supply chains.
Drought is a recurrent natural phenomenon. However, the risks of drought are significantly higher in a world where the average global temperature is higher because of the burning of fossil fuels, coupled with the return of El Niño, a natural weather phenomenon that can last several years.
That could mean higher prices for American and European consumers, or less stuff on the shelves, as retailers prepare for holiday shopping.
“These kinds of issues, overall, are becoming more frequent,” Mr. Davis added. “Dryness in Panama, low levels in the Mississippi. Low levels in the Rhine. That’s of concern to anyone that has interests in global trade.”
Droughts are not the only risk to global supply chains. Abnormally hot ocean waters are supersizing storms. The Atlantic hurricane season has been more active than usual; nine named storms have been recorded through mid-August.
Ocean shipping is how 90 percent of global goods reach one part of the world from another.
The area around the Panama Canal is experiencing an exceptionally dry year. That’s bad for the canal, because every ship that goes through needs millions of gallons of freshwater to float on, depending on how many containers it’s carrying and how heavy it is.
Ships have had to watch their weight this year, which means reducing cargo volumes. Fewer ships are going through each day; the Panama Canal Authority, which runs the waterway, has restricted the number to 32 per day now, compared with 36 to 38 at other points.
There is little rain in the forecast, which means the canal’s problems are not expected to ease up anytime soon.
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