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*My Brother’s Thanksgiving Lament*
Thanksgiving began as a time of prayer. We could use some prayers right now, in a country inflamed with hate and prejudice and generational mistrust. Americans are at each other’s throats, living in different realities, fraught by two brutal, calamitous wars. So, as this annus horribilis lurches to a close, with the hope that we can understand each other better, or at least eat pie together, here is the annual holiday column from a man I frequently disagree with, but always love, my conservative brother, Kevin.
Less than a year before the country chooses a president, President Biden’s poll numbers are almost catastrophic. The overwhelming majority of voters say he is too old, and Donald Trump is beating him in five of six battleground states, according to one recent survey.
While majorities of the country find both Trump and Biden unacceptable, Trump remains the Republican front-runner, bolstered by what his supporters see as overeager Democratic prosecutions. This scenario holds great peril for Republicans because Trump is the weakest candidate against Biden. He already lost to him in 2020 and the reflexive hatred he generates, especially among women, could boost Democratic turnout as only Trump could manage.
Biden’s three years have been a disaster. An exorbitant round of unnecessary Covid spending sent inflation through the roof, leading to a destructive rise in interest rates and further squeezing consumers.
We should fear that John Kerry and Antony Blinken are projecting weakness, leading to an unimaginable alliance of China, Russia and Iran that threatens our future. Our botched and tragic withdrawal from Afghanistan set Putin’s invasion of Ukraine into motion.
The disgraceful show of support by college students for Hamas exposed the underlying antisemitism being taught and tolerated in our “best” universities. There should be no moral confusion here. This is a battle between good and evil, and encouraging the side that just massacred 1,200 people and is holding scores more hostages is a pretty clear example of what happens when you get your news from TikTok. It is incomprehensible to see Osama bin Laden lauded online as if he were a great writer, much less a visionary, a mere two decades after his orchestration of the worst terrorist attack in American history.
Biden’s posture toward Iran, the leading sponsor of terror in the world, is inexplicable. He tried to restart the Iran nuclear deal, thankfully to no avail. He even handed over $6 billion to release five hostages, money to which Iran was denied access only after Hamas’s attack.
Biden’s border policies unwittingly created a national security crisis, with asylum seekers and undocumented immigrants pouring over our Southern border; since Biden took office, border patrol estimates approximately 6.5 million encounters. Many of them remain in the United States, unvetted. The tidal wave of migrants has flooded many major cities.
The 2024 election may well decide the future of our republic. Biden is too old, both cognitively and physically, to serve out another term. It is unthinkable that we could have Kamala Harris as an accidental president. His policies have weakened us at home and abroad and invited our enemies to test our resolve. He is in the midst of a House impeachment inquiry, setting the stage for two impeached presidents to run against each other.
Trump’s nomination would distract from framing the conversation on Biden and his job performance. He would have to mount a vigorous presidential campaign while defending himself in four separate criminal cases. The Democrats show no signs of letting up on making the campaign about him and the evil MAGA Republicans. Not to mention that some voters might object to casting a ballot for a convicted felon if any of the cases bear fruit.
Trump has already announced that his second term would essentially be a revenge tour, settling old scores and fighting the deep state. Under less heavy hands, the Justice Department and the F.B.I. could use a deep cleaning, after their disgraceful conduct in the Russia collusion hoax and their handling of the multiple sins of Hunter Biden.
I am conflicted. Trump’s behavior since the 2020 election has been reprehensible, and I fear it will grow worse. I am not sure he could beat Biden and I would find it difficult, if not impossible, to vote for anyone convicted of a felony.
*Israel-Hamas War First Hostages Are Released; Truce Holds as More Aid Enters Gaza*
Twenty-five hostages, including 12 Thai citizens and 13 other women and children, had been freed, Egypt said. At the start of a four-day cease-fire, no fighting was reported since the morning and dozens of trucks carrying aid, including fuel, entered Gaza.
Here’s the latest on the cease-fire.
Twenty-five hostages held in Gaza, including 12 Thai nationals and 13 other women and children, were released from captivity on Friday, the Egyptian government said, the first people to be freed under a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas that took effect hours earlier.
The hostages were transferred to Egypt as part of a prisoner exchange that was set to see 39 Palestinian prisoners and detainees released from Israeli custody on the first day of a four-day truce, which could be the longest pause in fighting in the seven-week war between Israel and Hamas.
All the released hostages were expected to be swiftly moved to Israel to receive urgent medical care.
The cease-fire that took effect Friday morning has already enabled the delivery of more aid supplies to Gaza, where roughly two-thirds of its 2.2 million people have been displaced by the war. By the afternoon, dozens of trucks carrying humanitarian aid had entered Gaza from Egypt, a spokesman for the border crossing, Wael Abu Omar, said by phone.
Israel said that eight aid trucks contained fuel and cooking gas, a small but significant amount for a territory that has all but run out of fuel.
Here’s what to know:
The cease-fire deal, brokered by Qatar in weeks of talks, calls for Hamas to return 50 of the women and children taken hostage during its Oct. 7 attacks in Israel, and for Israel to release 150 imprisoned Palestinian women and teenagers. The exchange would occur in phases across the four days of the cease-fire. Read more about the deal.
The freed Thai hostages were agricultural workers living in southern Israel, and were among scores of foreign nationals who were abducted alongside Israelis on Oct. 7.
In Israel, family members of hostages were hopeful they would soon see their loved ones. Among the roughly 240 people abducted to Gaza is a girl who turned 4 on Friday, whose parents were slain in the Hamas attacks.
Palestinian and Israeli officials said that 39 Palestinians jailed in Israel, including 24 women and 15 teenage males, would be freed on Friday. Among those expected to be released were two women whose families in the West Bank were eagerly awaiting their return.
Israel and Hamas have signaled that they will resume fighting after the truce, but officials from both sides said they would abide by the cease-fire. Hamas’s top political official said his group was committed to the truce “as long as the enemy also commits to its implementation.”
*Black Friday Isn’t What It Used to Be*
Big discounts, many of them online only, start appearing well before Thanksgiving and will run long after. Some people still go to the mall, though.
Black Friday was once a hallmark celebration of American consumerism. Lately, it has lost some of its thunder.
It’s true that shoppers looking for big discounts can still line up early at Macy’s or Best Buy on the day after Thanksgiving, in hopes of snagging a bargain. But for many, the bargain has already been had.
Check your inbox: Those emails offering the “Best Prices of the Year” have been coming in for days or weeks as retailers try to beat one another to your wallet.
“When you think about Black Friday, the competitive landscape has really shifted to Black Friday deals prior to Black Friday,” Jeffrey Gennette, chief executive of Macy’s, told investors on a recent call as he explained why the company was spreading out its promotions. “We’re in the midst of that along with our competitors.”
That’s not to say that Black Friday has lost all meaning. The days when scores of customers camped out at big-box retailers or trampled one another in the rush to get cheap televisions may be gone, but Black Friday is still shorthand for the shopping frenzy that grips Americans this time each year.
“It’s still a cultural event, but it’s not what it was some years ago,” said Craig Johnson, founder of the retail consultancy Customer Growth Partners. “It’s nothing like it used to be.”
Here is what you need to know about Black Friday shopping.
How did Black Friday come to be?
The term “Black Friday” was coined around the 1960s by Philadelphia police officers. On the day after Thanksgiving and before the annual Army-Navy football game on Saturday, tourists would storm retailers in the city and the crowds would overwhelm law enforcement.
Retailers embraced the interest but the original meaning was lost on many people — who came to understand being in the “black” as a reference to profits at retailers (compared with red, which signifies losses).
Over the decades, thanks to retail promotions, it became a fixture on the national calendar, — eventually defined by long lines, unruly crowds and occasional casualties. As stores sought to compete for shoppers, they extended their hours — first to the crack of dawn on Friday, then to midnight, then to the night of Thanksgiving.
That trend, facing a backlash from retail workers, began to reverse a few years ago. Many retailers now make a point of staying closed on Thanksgiving.
In the past 20 or so years, Black Friday sales have also spread internationally, said Dale Rogers, a business professor at Arizona State University. “It started off as a little American thing,” he said. “Now it’s really global.”
Sales now start long before Friday.
Retailers slowly introduced sales earlier, and now deals can be found as early as October, said Mr. Johnson, the retail consultant.
“If you’re a retailer, you don’t want to capture demand by dropping your prices so low that you don’t make money,” he said. “The way most people capture demand is by targeting early demand.”
Consumers have spent 5 percent more online in the first 20 days of November than they did in the same period last year, according to Adobe Analytics.
Many retailers say that spending on the other end of the holiday shopping calendar, in the days approaching Christmas, is more important as people rush to nab last-minute gifts.
Barnes & Noble, for example, sells more than 20 million books in December alone, with the seven days before Christmas accounting for 20 times the sales of an average week. In 2022, Christmas Eve and the Saturday before Christmas were the busiest days for dollar stores, according to Placer.ai, a market research company.
Mr. Johnson said his firm predicted that Black Friday would be the third-busiest day for retailers this year, behind Dec. 23 and Dec. 16, the last two Saturdays before Christmas.
What are retailers saying about holiday shopping?
Companies have spent much of the past year celebrating a surprisingly resilient consumer who has continued to spend despite inflation and rising interest rates.
But there are signs that that’s starting to change. Last quarter, many executives told analysts that shoppers had started pulling back.
The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates rapidly starting in March 2022 in an effort to slow down the economy and curb inflation. Though the rate at which prices are rising has eased significantly, the overall increase in prices is starting to weigh on consumers, limiting the amount of discretionary income at their disposal.
“Consumers are feeling the weight of multiple economic pressures, and discretionary retail has borne the brunt of this weight for many quarters now,” Christina Hennington, chief growth officer of Target, told analysts on a recent earnings call.
That doesn’t necessarily mean consumers won’t turn out, but they are more likely to take advantage of promotions and less likely to make big purchases like furniture or certain electronics, analysts expect.
Corie Barry, chief executive of Best Buy, told analysts on an earnings call Tuesday that the company was “preparing for a customer who is very deal focused” and was expecting sales to concentrate on days like Black Friday, Cyber Monday and the days just before Christmas.
The National Retail Federation, an industry trade group, forecasts that holiday sales will increase 3 to 4 percent from last year, which is in line with prepandemic levels but not as high as the past two years. Holiday sales rose 5.3 percent in 2022 and 12.7 percent in 2021.
*Once a Homeless Addict, a Mayor Takes On Housing and Drug Crises*
Dan Carter was on the streets for 17 years. His experience informs his policy agenda as mayor of Oshawa, Ontario, a city of 175,000 struggling with overdoses and affordability.
There are politicians — almost all of them — who try to put the best possible shine on their professional résumés and past lives. Then there is Dan Carter.
“For 17 years, I was an absolutely horrible individual,” said Mr. Carter, the mayor of Oshawa, Ontario. “Horrible individual. I lied, cheated, stole.”
Homeless and addicted to drugs from his teenage years until he was 31, and essentially illiterate because of severe dyslexia, he was fired from more jobs than he could remember, Mr. Carter said, adding, “I really had no skills, no abilities, no education, no nothing.”
But it was perhaps this atypical background that appealed to voters in Oshawa, a city of 175,000 on Lake Ontario’s shoreline, who first elected him mayor in 2018. Or at least his story positioned him as someone who could bring his personal experience to bear on the city’s most pressing problems.
Written with colored markers on a whiteboard in the meeting room next to Mr. Carter’s office in city hall are the issues facing Oshawa: the number of overdoses (398 last year); the number of homeless people (currently about 350); the costs to the city for the overdoses (over half a million Canadian dollars, or about $365,000, last year). Next to this list is a flow chart of his plans to change things.
“It’s going to be expensive, it’s going to be labor intensive, but that’s what it’s going to take,” said Mr. Carter, 63, during a stroll around city hall. He gestured toward a nearby park where several homeless people congregate in the cold: “Or,” he said, “we can just keep doing this.”
Born in New Brunswick, Mr. Carter was adopted by a family in Agincourt, Ontario, a farming village that rapidly became a suburb — part of Toronto’s Scarborough neighborhood.
Growing up, Mr. Carter had trouble connecting with his stern adoptive father, their one bond a current affairs radio program. After each show, he and his father debated politics.
His dyslexia, unrecognized in his school years, made learning nearly impossible. But a bright spot was his relationship with his three older siblings, especially Michael, a Toronto police officer whose death at 28 in a motorcycle accident deeply shook the 13-year-old Mr. Carter.
*How Viral Infections Cause Long-Term Health Problems*
In a few patients, the immune system becomes misdirected, attacking the body instead of the virus.
Every day, Davida Wynn sets herself one task: Take a bath. Or wash the dishes. Or make an elaborate meal. By the end of the chore, she is exhausted and has to sit or lie down, sometimes falling asleep wherever she happens to be.
“Anything beyond that is truly excruciating,” Ms. Wynn, 42, said.
Her heart races even during small tasks, and she often gets dizzy. At least once a month, she falls at her home outside Atlanta. Once she badly bruised her face, and another time she banged up her knee.
Ms. Wynn was infected with the coronavirus in May 2020, when she was a nurse in a hospital Covid unit, and became so ill she was put into a medically induced coma for six weeks. Ever since, her bloodwork has indicated that she is experiencing extreme inflammation, a hallmark of autoimmune disease.
Infection with the coronavirus is known to leave behind a long legacy of health problems, many of which are characterized as long Covid. But mounting evidence suggests that independent of that syndrome, the coronavirus also befuddles the immune system into targeting the body, causing autoimmune disorders in some people.
This outcome is more likely in those who, like Ms. Wynn, were severely ill with Covid, multiple studies suggest.
Covid is not unique in this aspect. Scientists have long known that infection can set the body down the path of autoimmune disease. The classic example is Epstein-Barr virus.
About one in 10 people who have mononucleosis, which is caused by the virus, go on to develop myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome. A landmark study last year even linked the virus to multiple sclerosis.
Many other pathogens can also seed autoimmunity — but only in an unlucky few people.
“We are all infected with a multitude of viruses, and in the majority of cases, we don’t get any autoimmunity,” said Dr. Alberto Ascherio, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health who led the multiple sclerosis study.
Infections with bacteria such as chlamydia and salmonella can inflame the joints, skin and eyes — a condition called reactive arthritis. Enteroviruses can mislead the body into attacking its own pancreatic cells, leading to Type 1 diabetes.
Like Epstein-Barr virus, dengue and H.I.V. are thought to cause autoimmunity in some people. Still, Covid seems to foment a long-term reaction that is distinct, said Dr. Timothy Henrich, a virologist at the University of California, San Francisco.
“There’s something specific about SARS-CoV-2 that seems to set it apart, in terms of the severity and duration,” he said, referring to the coronavirus.
*W.H.O. Says China Has Shared Data Indicating No Novel Pathogen*
The W.H.O. had requested detailed information about a reported surge in respiratory illnesses in children in China. Chinese data suggested the surge was caused by known bacteria and viruses.
The World Health Organization said that China had shared data about a recent surge in respiratory illnesses in children, one day after the agency said it was seeking information about the possibility of undiagnosed pneumonia cases there.
The Chinese data indicated “no detection of any unusual or novel pathogens,” according to a W.H.O. statement on Thursday. The data, which included laboratory results from infected children, indicated that the rise in cases was a result of known viruses and bacteria, such as influenza and mycoplasma pneumoniae, a bacterium that causes usually mild illness.
Hospital admissions of children had increased since May, as had outpatient visits, but hospitals were able to handle the increase, China told the global health agency.
The W.H.O. requested information after Chinese news reports, and social media posts, indicated a notable surge in sick children in recent weeks. Parents reported long lines, sometimes of eight hours or more, at children’s hospitals. China’s National Health Commission acknowledged the reports of overcrowding.
Some of those reports also caught the attention this week of members of ProMED, a disease tracking site run by the International Society for Infectious Diseases that health officials monitor for early warnings of potential emerging diseases.
China’s transparency in reporting outbreaks has been the subject of intense global scrutiny, after it covered up early cases of both the SARS virus in 2003 and the virus that led to the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The W.H.O. early this year rebuked Chinese officials for withholding data that the agency said could shed light on the coronavirus’s origins.
The W.H.O. issued its formal request for data one day after a ProMED member shared a news report from Taiwan about an uptick in sick children in Beijing and Liaoning, a northeastern Chinese province. Chinese officials had already publicly acknowledged an increase in respiratory diseases among children, but the W.H.O. said it was unclear at the time whether that increase was caused by known pathogens.
“A key purpose was to identify whether there have been ‘clusters of undiagnosed pneumonia’ in Beijing and Liaoning, as referred to in media reports,” the W.H.O. statement said.
The W.H.O. said the increased infections in China were earlier in the season than historically expected but “not unexpected,” given that this was the first winter since China had lifted the stringent coronavirus restrictions it imposed in 2020. Other countries experienced similar leaps in other illnesses after lifting their Covid controls.
*ATENTAMENTE*
*MAESTRO FEDERICO LA MONT*
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